中国石化新闻网讯 据今日石油网站2023年4月23日报道，伍德麦肯兹预测，在可行的40多个项目中，今年全球将有30个项目的发展前景乐观，预计将在2023年做出最终投资决定(FID)。

【资料图】

但这并不容易。

伍德麦肯兹副总裁兼上游分析主管弗兰克·麦凯和上游研究首席分析师格雷格·里多克表示，在油气项目上做出FID比以前更难了。

他们表示：“尽管自2020年疫情最严重时期以来，油气活动仍持续增加，但2022年批准的重大项目比年初预期的要少。”

2023年前景较好，但伍德麦肯兹表示，由于成本上涨，一些FID可能会推迟并重新评估。

分析师解释说：“大多数运营商将保持严格的财政纪律。少数回报较低的项目将继续进行，因为它们具有战略重要性。”

伍德麦肯兹预计，今年国家石油公司(NOC)将控制最大的投资机会。这位分析师说，最多1850亿美元的投资可能用于开发270亿桶油当量的油气储量。

伍德麦肯兹表示：“国家石油公司今年将占据FID的主导地位，因为它们利用了大量已发现的资源，并拥有最低的单位成本。”国际石油公司(IOC)，如圭亚那斯塔布鲁克区块运营商埃克森美孚公司，将主要关注高成本、高回报的深水开发项目。

伍德麦肯兹表示：“所有人都将敏锐地意识到，石油和天然气项目的批准将如何在公共领域发挥作用，以及相关排放将受到何种审查。”

此外，伍德麦肯兹表示，今年的项目平均需要每桶49美元才能产生盈亏平衡的15%内部回报率(IRR)。然而，每桶60美元的加权平均内部收益率为19%，这将是2018年以来的最低水平。

李峻 编译自 今日石油网

原文如下：

2023 to be a boon year for project approvals with 30 expected to reach FID – WoodMac

Wood Mackenzie predicts a positive outlook for project development with 30 out of the viable 40+ expected to reach final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2023.

But it does not come easy.

WoodMac’s Vice President, Head of Upstream Analysis Frank McKay and Principal Analyst, Upstream, Greg Riddock said that achieving FIDs on oil and gas projects is harder than before.

“Despite a continued uptick in activity since the pandemic nadir of 2020, fewer major projects were sanctioned in 2022 than was expected at the start of the year,” they said.

2023 offers a better outlook, but WoodMac said several FIDs could be delayed and re-evaluated due to cost inflation.

“Most operators will remain very disciplined. A handful of lower-return projects will proceed because of their strategic importance,” the analysts explained.

WoodMac anticipates that National Oil Companies (NOCs) would control the largest investment opportunities. The analyst said that up to US$185 billion of the investment could be committed to develop 27 billion oil-equivalent barrels of reserves.

“NOCs will dominate the year, as they take advantage of huge discovered resources and boast the lowest unit costs,” WoodMac said. International Oil Companies (IOCs) like ExxonMobil, the operator of Guyana’s Stabroek Block, will focus largely on higher-cost, higher-return deepwater developments.

“All will be acutely aware of how oil and gas project sanctions are playing out in the public domain and the scrutiny to which their associated emissions will be subject,” WoodMac outlined.

Additionally, WoodMac said that projects on 2023 will need an average of US$49/bbl to generate a breakeven 15% internal rate of return (IRR). However, a weighted average IRR of 19% at US$60/bbl, would be the lowest level since 2018.

（责任编辑：黄振 审核：蒋文娟 ）